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☆ The Fed may have pumped so much money into the economy that it's now taking way longer to cut rates
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Huileng Tan | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

So the Fed can keep interest rates higher for longer to cool price rises — although the central bank also has room to cut should the labor market "unexpectedly weaken," Powell added. Related storyHigher interest rates make borrowing more expensive for anything from mortgages to credit cards — it encourages people to save rather than spend, which in theory, helps bring down prices. AdvertisementConversely, lower interest rates encourage borrowing and spending — thus driving the economy when growth slows, such as during the COVID-19 pandemic when the Fed cut rates massively and pumped money into the system. But Reid thinks the excess money could be drained from the economy later this year, when money supply in the economy normalizes. AdvertisementDemand, supply chain snarls, and fiscal stimulus also contribute to inflationTo be sure, money supply isn't the only thing that contributes to inflation.

Persons: —, Jerome Powell, Powell, Jim Reid, it's, Reid, Bill Dudley Organizations: Service, Wilson Center, Business, Fed, Deutsche Bank, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg Locations: Washington, New York, Dudley

☆ Theory About the Fed, Inflation, and Rates That May Wreck the Economy
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-11 | by ( Neil Dutta | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +11 min

After spending the past two years trying to get inflation under control by raising interest rates, the Fed is inching toward cutting rates soon. Setting interest rates should be about weighing costs and benefits for everyone, not engineering outcomes for a favored constituency. When people (usually those with a vested political interest) try to accuse the Fed of being biased, it erodes confidence. The real reason for the accusationsThe entire conspiracy theory about a political Fed is weak on its face and baseless on its merits. What makes anyone so sure they'll fare better in 2024 with the rate of inflation slowing, interest rates falling, and stocks rising?

Persons: there's, it's, Joe Biden's, Jerome Powell, Donald Trump, Biden, It's, Trump, Ro Khanna, Powell, Taylor, Bill Dudley, Dudley, Dudley's, Chris Waller Organizations: Federal Reserve, Fed, Democratic, Trump, Biden, New York Fed Locations: Canada, Australia, Japan

☆ The Fed has caused a recession every time it's tried to weaken the labor market, and a 'soft-landing' of the economy is unlikely, former New York Fed chief Bill Dudley says
▼ + stars: | 2023-02-08 | by ( Jennifer Sor | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

The Fed has sparked a recession every time it's tries to tackle a hot labor market, former Fed official Bill Dudley said. Powell has repeatedly cited a tight labor market as to why interest rates need to remain restrictive. Dudley believes a soft-landing is unlikely, and a recession is looming in the medium-term. Prices are still well-above the Fed's 2% target, and the labor market is still hot, with the US adding a stunning 517,000 new jobs in January. That suggests the Fed needs to continue its efforts, despite having already hiked interest rates 450-basis-points to lower inflation.

☆ Premarket stocks: Why Goldman Sachs isn't too worried about a recession
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-13 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

In their 2023 outlook, Goldman analysts noted that disagreement about the economic forecast abounds within their own circles. Bill Dudley, a former Goldman Sachs partner and president of the New York Fed, puts the chance of recession this year at about 70%. Goldman analysts say that even with a sour economy, they predict the 2023 investment return on the S&P 500 will most likely be between 9-12%. The Fed’s days of three-quarter-point rate hikes are behind us, said Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Patrick Harker in a blog post Friday. Better-than-expected price data shows that the Fed’s aggressive and economically painful rate hikes are successfully slowing the economy and fighting inflation, he said.

☆ Here's why investors can expect returns in the S&P 500 this year after 2022's stock market bloodbath.
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-04 | by ( Phil Rosen | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +5 min

This time last year, the S&P 500 was coming off its all-time closing high, which had arrived on 2022's first day of trading. It's only happened four times, but when the S&P 500 sees back-to-back losing years, the second is always worse. Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York, U.S., March 2, 2020. And if you look at Bank of America's Sell Side Indicator, a year in the green for the S&P 500 seems to be in the cards. Morgan Stanley just revamped a nine-stock list that's beaten the S&P 500 by 18% over time.

☆ The looming recession will stop short of a full-blown financial crisis because the Fed is still in control, ex-NY Fed chief Bill Dudley says
▼ + stars: | 2023-01-03 | by ( Matthew Fox | ) www.businessinsider.com time to read: +3 min

A looming economic recession won't spiral into a full blown financial crisis, according to ex-NY Fed chief Bill Dudley. That's because the recession, which is "pretty likely" according to Dudley, will be induced by the Fed. "I think this is a recession where the Fed has the controls, when they need to ease they can do so," Dudley said. And if they manage to do that, the Fed can avoid a systematic financial crisis that leads to instability during the next recession. "I don't think that there's a big risk of a financial-instability cataclysm that pushes the economy into a deep recession," Dudley said.

A debate on lifting central banks' inflation targets re-surfaced this week - feeding speculation about just how much economic pain monetary policymakers are willing to inflict to drag decades-high inflation back to largely arbitrary 2% goals. Former International Monetary Fund chief economist and long-term advocate of higher inflation targets Olivier Blanchard thinks 3% could and probably should be the new 2%. That prodded central banks into extraordinary asset purchases, negative interest rates or both just to try and get inflation back up to 2%. And counter-intuitively for some he emphasised that higher inflation would not imply looser policy. So good and bad news - a potentially more balanced economy, with better wage distribution but higher nominal interest rates that may spook financial markets trying to parse the trajectory for Fed or European Central Bank interest rates years hence.

☆ How much ‘pain’ is the Fed willing to inflict? Wednesday’s rate hike will offer clues
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-21 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +6 min

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has acknowledged the economic pain this rapid tightening regime may cause. A larger hike is possible, but unlikelySome economists even expect the Fed to implement a massive — and historic — full-point rate hike on Wednesday. It meant that people understood the seriousness of the Fed’s commitment to getting inflation rates back down to 2%, he said. They want higher bond yields,” former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley told CNN back in May. The Federal Reserve announces its rate hike decision Wednesday at 2 p.m.

☆ Premarket trading: It's getting late in the game. Will the Fed risk a Hail Mary?
▼ + stars: | 2022-09-15 | by ( Nicole Goodkind | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +8 min

Markets plummeted as the report stoked fears that the central bank and Chair Jerome Powell would decide to hike rates more aggressively, inflicting serious economic pain. Investors are putting the odds of a three-quarter percentage point hike next week at 75%, according to CME FedWatch data. The odds for a full point hike are hovering around 25% in the wake of the inflation report, up from 0% one week ago. It meant that people understood the seriousness of the Fed’s commitment to getting inflation rates back down to 2%, he said. “I wouldn’t discount a 100 basis point rate hike,” Marvin Loh, senior strategist at State Street, told me.

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